This week Nikki Haley became the first major candidate to challenge former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. Lastly, they ask whether a recent survey of Americans attitudes about secession is a good or bad use of polling. With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency. Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on abortion. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Politics Podcast: Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination? They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEights Redistricting Tracker. We speak with journalist Sasha Issenberg about how that happened. Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of the divergence between the conventional wisdom that Republicans will do very well in the midterms and polling showing Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races. They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom. NEW TOWN . Then the crew explains why they consider four competitive U.S. House districts to be bellwether elections for which party will win control of the House. FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast | Free Listening on Podbean App FiveThirtyEight Politics https://feeds.megaphone.fm/ESP8794877317 Follow Share 13.5k Followers 200 Episodes Category: Politics Last Update: 2023-02-21 Claim Ownership The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but its not the only one. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and game-changers every week. They consider how much. In this installment, we put that primary in context by looking more broadly at the relationship between urban centers and the Democratic Party. It was a fiendishly clever and massively hyped invention. And lastly, they check-in on the gubernatorial recall efforts in California that are very likely to result in a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom. Dive in and Share your insights! In his new book "Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America," Washington Post national columnist Philip Bump argues that many of the fissures that the country is facing today politically, economically, culturally have to do with the Baby Boomers getting old. They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden than it was on President Trump is a "good or bad use of data.". We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. They also previewed and caught up on some elections, including Alaskas special election to replace longtime Alaska congressman Don Young that took place this past weekend. They also have a good or bad use of polling on the topic of death and consider whether a recent Facebook hearing will lead to new regulations for the monolithic technology company. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump. The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer a more moderate Justice among the Liberals retires. Together they describe why the war has not turned out as originally expected, what the risks of escalation are today and how the conflict might come to an end. We also look at the future of inflation with economist Kenneth Rogoff. The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures. We hear about the decade-long relationship between the two of them, one that dates back to the Kennedys arrival in Washington in the mid-50s, and hear fascinating observations these women make about each other. Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. What to do about George Santos | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast In Part 2 of this podcast, the crew asks why House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has declined to call Rep. George Santos to resign and considers a poll showing that 60% of his district's voters want him to. A message from Martine. Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why. Preview of Spotify. Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. The crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. The crew discusses how President Bidens executive action that forgives up to $20,000 of student loan debt will impact politics and the economy. They also discuss shifting American views on foreign policy and the status of the infrastructure and budget bills currently being considered in the Senate. My theme song for the "What's the Point" podcast from FiveThirtyEight, a podcast about our data age. The crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the midterms. The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and the likelihood of Congress reaching a compromise. How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in 100 16 in 100 . FiveThirtyEight Politics 199 Episodes Share Follow Episodes About 61 minutes | Feb 27, 2023 How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear To mark a year since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the Parental Rights In Education Bill -- or what its critics call the Dont Say Gay Bill -- which Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law last week. But that doesnt stop us from talking about what we do know: that Republicans didnt make major gains in the Senate, and that the polls were pretty good this cycle. We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled I blew it. He is now facing a primary from Congressman Jody Hice, whom Trump has endorsed, in his 2022 re-election bid. The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in New Jersey and Virginian and looks at the debate playing out between the two parties over how much wealthy Americans and corporations should be paying in taxes. The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. In this installment, the crew plays a game of midterm trivia and analyzes the press coverage surrounding the latest decline in life expectancy. With one week left until Election Day, the crew analyzes some of the high-profile races and which issues Americans care about most as they enter the voting booth. With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. It was the biggest shift of any demographic group between the two presidential elections and led to some speculation about a possible realignment. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. Accuracy is not guaranteed. FiveThirtyEight Politics News Latest Transcripts How To Make Polls Better 240 views about 2 years ago 01:12:44 Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them. Its generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in one of the highest profile cases of the term. They play a game of "Guess What Americans Think," in which the panelists have to guess Americans' opinions on a wide variety of topics, including Elon Musk, inflation and Britney Spears. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans leading economic concern. Finally, they analyze why Bidens approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July. Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has responded. The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. They also look at the politics of two hot button issues in the Senate and speak with Carlos Odio of Equis Research about how Latino voters are viewing the two parties in 2022. 2,. And they look at the experiences of urban Republicans and rural Democrats in a country increasingly sorted geographically and politically. You can get between 30 cents to $1.10 for every audio minute, which sums up to $18 - $66 per audio hour. Cuomo denied the allegations, but has faced overwhelming pressure to resign from fellow Democrats, including President Joe Biden. In this installment, Robert Crews, a History professor from Stanford University, joins to reflect on the history of the Taliban and the current political landscape in Afghanistan. They also discuss why gas stoves became such a hot topic of debate on the internet and what the 2024 primary for U.S. Senate in California will look like. The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. They also continue to track the types of candidates former President Trump has endorsed in the 2022 Republican primaries. 3 min read. In recent weeks, Democrats odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. The crew discusses how Liz Cheney and Madison Cawthorn's primaries serve as a test of what the Republican Party and its voters will and wont accept. FT Podcasts FT Weekend podcast 31 min listen Best of: Chef Mashama Bailey on reclaiming African-American food The award-winning chef explains her creative process 2 hours ago FT News Briefing. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the states likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. It's a big election week for liberal democracies. He has also reported audio documentaries at FiveThirtyEight, including the monthslong series "The Gerrymandering Project." His work has been heard on NPR, WNYC, On The Media, CBC, Wisconsin Public Radio and the University of Cambridge's ELECTION podcast. 91.5 Chapel Hill 88.9 Manteo 90.9 Rocky Mount 91.1 Welcome 91.9 Fayetteville 90.5 Buxton 94.1 Lumberton 99.9 Southern Pines Ron DeSantis are the only candidates who currently have sizable support in national polls. The crew previews Californias primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. Today those numbers have flipped. So, the usual. The crew discusses the role of the debt ceiling in politics, why it exists in the first place, and the chances of it being abolished altogether. How FiveThirtyEight Calculates Pollster Ratings. The Gabfest, featuring Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz, is the kind of informal and irreverent discussion Washington journalists have The crew discusses Manchins rationale and where Democrats might go from here. heritage commons university of utah. Politics Podcast: Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless', Politics Podcast: How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear, Politics Podcast: Some Republicans Are Souring On Aid To Ukraine. If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time? What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. Rev also gives transcribers the autonomy to work for as much or little as they want. What do we know, how confidently do we know it and what do we know we dont know? Where the hot sports takes of the week meet the numbers that prove them right or tear them down. The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. The crew tries to rank the electoral significance of some of the biggest stories in the news right now. Mona Chalabi of FiveThirtyEight.com joins NPR's Rachel Martin for a look at who those people are. Upload your Podcast as an audio or video file to Type Studio in our menu. The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress. What do we know about the novel coronavirus, and what do we know we don't know? They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major cities, and special elections for a handful of vacant House seats. The first half of this episode originally aired on November 5, 2018, and was produced by Dan Pashman, Anne Saini, and Aviva DeKornfeld, with editing by Gianna Palmer and mixing by Dan Dzula. Transcript for What if America had a lot more political parties? Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texass 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texass Rio Grande Valley. Subscribe and listen Also available wherever you listen to podcasts Google Stitcher iHeartRadio Castbox TuneIn Galen and Nate discuss the state of uncalled races, what let to a good night for Democrats and answer listener questions. The crew looks at the issues that have shaped the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races and rounds up some of the other local races and ballot measures around the country. Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. 0:00:00 I'm Galen Truk. 266, the . Feb. 28GLASTONBURY When Jonathan K. Luiz starts work as town manager March 31, he will be making $190,000 per year. The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024. The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local public opinion. They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other elections around the country. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the results of the California gubernatorial recall election. FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast Feb. 21, 2023 Politics Podcast: Some Republicans Are Souring On Aid To Ukraine Feb. 16, 2023 Nikki Haley Has Tough Competition In Trump And DeSantis By Galen. [00:00:19] The crew discusses how hurricanes shape political perceptions, whether 52 Democrats senators would be all that different from 50 and how the Electoral Count Reform Act could prevent future attempts to meddle with American elections. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances. Dec. 7, 2017 | Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS 03 / Black Representation In North Carolina The debate over how districts should be drawn to ensure that minority voters are represented in Congress. Bot Love was created by Diego Senior. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the terms major cases, particularly on election law. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020. Nate Silver is back from his book research/poker trip to Las Vegas, and in this installment, he sits down with Galen Druke to answer listener questions and talk about what he learned on the strip. Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. Galen Druke talks to Nicole Hemmer about her new book, "Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s.". FiveThirtyEight Politics 295 views 25 Feb 2021 Transcribe your podcast [00:00:06] Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics podcast. In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with then-President Trump once and for all. The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. david senak now. Election Day in Georgia is just a week away, so the crew shook off their turkey hangover to talk about what to expect in Georgias second Senate runoff in two years. Galen Druke discusses the context of these laws with Theodore Johnson, the Director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. The crew follows up on last weeks Republican 2024 primary draft with its first Democratic primary draft. Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first lady's surprisingly powerful role in the Johnson presidency and includes history-making revelations about Lyndon B. Johnsons time in office. FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News (US) Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems. Happy holidays! Whereas Tester . All rights reserved. And what does Florida's new voting law tell us about the GOP's efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the party's larger motivations? The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. The crew reacts to the results in Tuesdays primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. Join. Then the team debates if a surge of women registering to vote in June could be linked to the Supreme Courts recent abortion decision. Thats Changing. The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what theyve learned from this election so far. As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. It helps our wrinkle, which helps other discover the shop or just tell them on about this series, we'll be . What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Nate Silver's. In Kim Barker's memory, the city of Laramie . They also consider Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's motivations for registering as an independent and look at the latest polling on a potential presidential primary matchup between Florida Gov. The crew reacts to Senator Raphael Warnock's win in the Georgia Senate runoff. 9 days ago. To mark a year since Russias full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. June 2, 2016. What does it take to make democracy work? Tester faces a tough bid, but don't sleep on Brown being the weaker of the two. Since Jacksons confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings similar to past ones were more about politics. They also discuss the politics of reparations after a Democratic proposal in the House to study reparations for slavery was voted out of committee for the first time since it was introduced in Congress in 1989. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. They also review Democrats agenda for the current lame duck session in Congress and hold their first post-midterm 2024 Democratic primary draft. 450 episodes. In early January of 2020, then-President Trump encouraged Raffensperger to help overturn the election results in Georgia. Listen to FiveThirtyEight Politics on Spotify. And if partisan loyalists were to make their way onto the Fed board, that degree of power could be abused. His new book is called "The Engagement: Americas Quarter-Century Struggle Over Same-Sex Marriage.". You have to take and pass a grammar test, then submit a transcription template before you can get assignments from Rev. In light of new data showing union membership at its lowest point since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began counting, they also look at how that decline has shaped U.S. politics. They also reflect on how British and American politics changed during the period when "Brexit" and "Trump" dominated the two countries news cycles and consider their lasting impact. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.